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2011: Romney dominates GOP cash dash / Politico

2011-06-24T08:46:00.000-07:00

See the original of this story at Politico.com at this link.

Thanks, Steve St.Clair

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Romney dominates GOP cash dash
By: Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman
June 24, 2011 04:43 AM EDT

Everyone knows Mitt Romney is going to outpace the GOP presidential field when next month’s fundraising reports come out. But the scale of his money advantage is finally coming into shape: the rest of the field is going to be eating his dust.

Romney is so confident in his fundraising that he will not put any of his own money into the campaign this quarter, campaign officials tell POLITICO.

The former Massachusetts governor’s commanding financial position is just one of the themes that will emerge from the paperwork filed for the quarterly reporting deadline — the first true metric of the sluggish 2012 presidential campaign.

Tim Pawlenty, unable to show fickle donors any poll numbers indicating a pulse, is likely to reveal that he hasn’t yet met his potential. Newt Gingrich’s finances, much like his broader campaign, seem to be going bust.

Beyond that, there are mostly questions. Rep. Michele Bachmann, while expected to clean up with low-dollar contributions, has yet to demonstrate she can haul in checks from the party’s coveted bundlers. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman is impressing some of the GOP’s moneymen but remains a mystery.

Those are just the candidates who’ve made clear they’re running. Proven fundraiser Rick Perry is still casting a shadow from the sidelines.

The reports will reflect the state of the race in another important way: who’s not cutting checks.

Many longtime Republican donors are either sitting on their money or directing it to other political entities as they wait for an ideal candidate who may never emerge.

“I’m still waiting for the field to clarify,” said Al Hoffman, a Florida donor and former Republican National Committee finance chairman, who said he wants Jeb Bush to run but knows that’s unlikely. “There’s not one individual candidate that’s really grabbed me.”

When July 15th rolls around and all the numbers are public, here’s what the reports are likely to show:

MITT ROMNEY

The former Massachusetts governor might ultimately reach into his own bank account. He gave himself nearly $45 million for his failed 2008 bid, but for now he’s relying on the support of an extensive network derived from his church, business community contacts and the Republicans he’s never stopped courting since the last round.

“Romney is going to show very strong,” said former RNC Chairman Jim Nicholson, who remains uncommitted. “He’s in a field by himself.”

Another longtime Republican contributor who is still on the sidelines recalled Romney finance director Spencer Zwick showing up at his office to make the hard sell two years ago.

“Romney is constantly reaching out,” this contributor said.

Romney hauled in more than $10 million in a single call day last month and just in the month of June, he has more than 30 fundraising events lined up.

That includes a breakfast next week in New York City which, according to an invitation obtained by POLITICO, features 78 co-hosts, including such finance titans as Maurice Greenberg, Lew Eisenberg, Glenn Hubbard and John Whitehead.

The Republican is also aggressively raising money online and has quietly deployed surrogates to bring in cash. His son Tagg, for example, tweeted on Thursday that he just completed a 13-event Texas fundraising tour.

And Romney donors across the country say that they’re beating campaign targets.

“In Missouri, we’re above our expectation, above our goal,” said Sam Fox, a former Bush donor and ambassador who helped stage a St. Louis event for Romney earlier this month.

Top advisers to the frontrunner insist he’ll only raise upward of $20 million, and dismiss higher figures being thrown around. But some longtime Republicans expect him to bring in nearer to $40 million.

(Recall that Romney, with just over $2 million of his own money, raised $23.4 million in the initial fundraising quarter of the 2008 race). The ex-governor is also only raising money for the primary, so whatever he does bring in won’t be padded with general election dollars.

For a sense of proportion, the key number is $36.2 million. That was the record-shattering figure then-Gov. George W. Bush posted out of the gate in 1999, at a time when the maximum giving level was $1,000.

TIM PAWLENTY

The buzz among Republican insiders about Pawlenty’s money struggles has been growing for weeks.

And that was before a Washington Post story Wednesday detailing how some of Pawlenty’s top advisers were going without pay, and before news out of Iowa Thursday that he only paid the $15,000 minimum for a less-than-choice spot at the Ames Straw Poll. Now, the volume on the chatter has grown.

Sig Rogich, a Las Vegas donor and GOP strategist who has met with many of the candidates but remains undecided, said Pawlenty’s debate performance earlier this month also didn’t help.

“I think he lost some momentum there,” said Rogich, who insisted, “but he can recapture it.”

Pawlenty’s bigger challenge is that, for months, the anti-Romney swath of the donor class kept him at bay as they waited on white knights like Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. Even though those two heavyweights decided not to run, many bundlers are still waiting to see whether Perry, the Texas governor, or anyone else jumps in late.

A Pawlenty aide low-balled the campaign’s goal, suggesting they raised as much for the quarter as they did for his political action committee in all of last year — $2 million — and compared their campaign to the underfunded winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

“We are building a Huckabee-like model, which means we’re planning for a success in the early states and knowing that if we do that well, the money will come,” said the aide.

Pawlenty will almost certainly raise less than $10 million, say party insiders, and his quarterly sum may even hover around $5 million.

Still, an aide said they will take general election and primary dollars meaning their sum could be boosted beyond what they can actually spend in the GOP contest.

MICHELE BACHMANN

The firebrand congresswoman, who officially declared her candidacy less than two weeks ago, has proven to be a hugely successful fundraiser through Internet donations. But she’s moving toward a new, tougher level of raking in campaign cash after relying throughout her congressional career on a small, core group of advisers and donors whose work could only take her so far.

A spokeswoman declined comment on what Bachmann’s numbers will look like. But they are likely to be less than $10 million. That includes a transfer of about $2 million that she’s expected to make from her congressional account into her presidential one, people familiar with her plans told POLITICO.

In the meantime, she’s said to be boosting her fundraising arm with professional rainmakers, whose work won’t be felt until the end of the third quarter.

Still, she has developed a strong national list and is effective at tapping it.

JON HUNTSMAN

Few Republicans have a feel for what the governor-turned-China ambassador will raise. Since he just got into the contest, he doesn’t even have to file a Federal Election Committee report next month. As of Thursday, Huntsman aides declined to say what they would do.

But the Republican certainly is acting like he’s planning to make a splash before the end-of-month deadline.

Initially, upon returning to the U.S., Huntsman said that he would do “no self-financing,” However, he indicated Wednesday in South Carolina that he had “put in a little bit to prime the pump.” Asked how much, he only said: “We’ll be disclosing that.”

He has 18 fundraising events planned over 10 days, beginning with a New York City event earlier this week that brought him $1.2 million.

Earlier this month, Nicholson scheduled a reception at his Washington law firm for Huntsman.

“He’s an extremely accomplished, bright person who has been a successful governor, successful ambassador to maybe the most important bilateral relationship we have,” said the former RNC chairman.

Added Rogich, who has also sat down with Huntsman: “Everyone who meets him comes away impressed. He’s got a dignified way about him.”

Huntsman isn’t soliciting general election dollars, officials said.

NEWT GINGRICH

The official line on the staff departures from Team Gingrich three weeks ago was a disagreement over strategy.

The real reason, according to many campaign insiders, was a lack of cash.

Gingrich has long been an agile fundraiser for his various unlimited committees, to which high rollers can write large checks. But he has not been able to do the same for his own campaign, according to the insiders.

Gingrich is still devoting hours to fundraising calls, his spokesman said this week after two paid fundraisers quit the listing campaign. But others familiar with the situation said he is doing little to shake the trees.

“He’s not picking up the phone,” one source said.

Not only is Gingrich expected to have raised little, the campaign has had a not-insignificant “burn rate” on its resources, the source said, and will show a debt.

THE REST

Should Sarah Palin get in, she’d have a ready-made network of low-dollar fundraisers to seed her campaign.

“She can raise enough money to burn a wet mule,” as Barbour put it to reporters at a GOP conference last weekend in New Orleans.

Herman Cain, who has put in some real groundwork in Iowa, told POLITICO he’ll show less than $5 million.

Rick Santorum, who opened his campaign at the start of the month, has a national fundraising list from his Senate days but is not expected to raise significant money.

And then there is Perry, who has an extensive network of Texas donors he’s been tapping over three gubernatorial races.

“Some of our donors are committed to other candidates and have had events,” noted Dave Carney, Perry’s top adviser. “That’s part of this effort in terms of assessing the situation.”

The governor huddled with some of his donors in Houston on Thursday amid speculation from potential rivals that he may use the unlimited contributions he’s hauled in to underwrite the early going of a presidential campaign.

Carney said the governor has always used his campaign fund to pay for in-state and out-of-state political travel but that that would change if he runs.

“If he’s a candidate, Texans for Rick Perry will not be paying for his travel,” Carney said.

He added that if Perry does run, he’ll jump in feet first.

“I can’t imagine any exploratory phase. He’ll make a decision this summer some time, and he’s either in or out.”

2011: Romney Leads Republican Field in Favorability / Real Clear Politics

2011-06-24T07:33:00.000-07:00

See the original story on Real Clear Politics at this link.

Steve St.Clair

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Romney Leads Republican Field in Favorability

A new poll shows a majority of Republicans know and like front-runner Mitt Romney, but many still aren't familiar enough with Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann to say whether they feel the same way. And most GOPers are holding out hope for another candidate to enter the White House race.

Fifty-nine percent of Republicans view the former Massachusetts governor favorably, according to a Bloomberg National News poll. And by a 10-percentage-point margin, Romney is more popular than unpopular among independents.

The survey delivers more positive news for Romney's candidacy. Among Republicans, 83 percent say they want their candidate to focus entirely on economic issues facing the country and spend less time on social issues, compared to the 10 percent who desire the opposite. Romney's campaign is touting the candidate's businesses experience and posted a video advertisement Wednesday on YouTube to frame him as better prepared than President Obama to handle the economy. Though Romney's favorability is high among Republicans, his rating among all poll participants is 37 percent, 17 points lower than President Obama (54 percent).

Another challenge for Romney is that 52 percent of Republicans say they aren't attracted to a candidate who supported a health insurance mandate; the bill Romney signed into law in Massachusetts included one.

In addition, 46 percent say they are turned off by a candidate who served in the Obama administration -- an assessment that doesn't bode well for former Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, who officially announced his candidacy on Tuesday. Huntsman also has the most ground to make up in terms of introducing himself to voters: 71 percent of Republicans say they don't know enough about him to say whether they like him. Sixty percent said the same about Pawlenty and 45 percent about Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who plans to formally enter the race on Monday. And 58 percent say they wish another candidate would run for the GOP nomination.

Caitlin Huey-Burns is a reporter for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at chueyburns@realclearpolitics.com.

2011: New Hampshire Debate Highlights / Mitt Romney

2011-06-23T21:30:00.000-07:00

2011:Romney backers launch super PAC / Washington Post

2011-06-23T12:17:00.000-07:00

See the original of this news story on the Washington Post website at this link.

Thanks much,
Steve St.Clair
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Romney backers launch super PAC
By Dan Eggen and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post

A group of prominent Mitt Romney backers has quietly launched a “super PAC” to raise and spend unlimited amounts of money in support of his bid for the White House, according to organizers and others involved in the effort.

Restore Our Future PAC, spearheaded by several prominent GOP strategists, is the latest in an expanding list of new groups that have formed to take advantage of court rulings allowing corporations, unions and tycoons to spend millions of dollars on elections without restrictions.

The development provides further evidence that Romney is shaping up as the candidate to beat in the GOP money race, and underscores the extensive role that well-funded outside groups are likely to play in the 2012 elections.

The new pro-Romney PAC aims to go head-to-head with Priorities USA Action, a similar super PAC led by former White House aides in support of President Obama. But Restore Our Future PAC could also be used to go after other Republicans if necessary in the contentious GOP primary season, those familiar with the operation said.

The group has been actively soliciting donations in recent weeks, but organizers declined to say how much has been raised.

“This is an independent effort focused on getting Romney elected president,” said Charles R. Spies, the super PAC’s treasurer, who served as Romney’s general counsel in 2008. “We will do that by focusing on jobs and his ability to fix the economy.”

The Romney campaign, which is barred from coordinating with Restore Our Future PAC or any other outside group, is expected to report at least $25 million in contributions in filings with the Federal Election Commission next month.

“We just want to show that we’ve got more dough than anyone,” said one major Romney donor, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Gail Gitcho, the Romney campaign’s communications director, said outside support was welcome given the existence of Democratic super PACs and predictions that the Obama campaign could raise as much as $1 billion for his reelection.

“We are pleased that independent groups will be active in fighting this entrenched power so the country can get back to work,” Gitcho said.

Restore Our Future PAC’s board of directors is comprised of Spies; Carl Forti, Romney’s 2008 political director; and Larry McCarthy, a member of the Romney media team in 2008.

Forti, co-founder of the Black Rock Group consulting firm, also serves as political director for American Crossroads, a separate super PAC that plans to raise at least $120 million for 2012. Forti did not respond to requests for comment.

Romney supporters affiliated with the new organization have been briefing top donors in recent weeks about the super PAC’s plans and fundraising goals, including small-group meetings and one-on-one dinners, sources said.

The super PAC first registered with the Federal Election Commission in October, then amended its registration in March after lying dormant until then, FEC records show. It will report its first fundraising numbers next month.

“I’m not surprised that there’s even more money coming into this race to help Mitt Romney,” said Bill Burton, a former Obama spokesman who co-founded Priorities USA Action, which sponsored ads last month attacking Romney in South Carolina. “He’s a pretty deeply flawed candidate; he’s going to need all the help he can get.”

American Crossroads, which has signaled that it might focus primarily on GOP congressional candidates in 2012, did not immediately respond to a request for comment Thursday. Both Forti and spokesman Jonathan Collegio have been quoted in recent days saying positive things about Romney’s status as a potential GOP nominee.

“It’s up to the other candidates to knock him off the top rung, and at this point, the other candidates have shown an unwillingness to even really try,” Forti told Politico.

In addition to Priorities USA, Democratic operatives have launched two other super PACs to help House (House Majority PAC) and Senate candidates (Majority PAC). The groups are also enlisting the aid of current Democratic leaders to help raise money.

Earlier this week, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) sent out a letter on behalf of Majority PAC, which includes several former top Reid aides.

“There can be no greater priority than protecting the Democratic majority in the Senate,” Reid wrote in a fundraising e-mail, which was first reported by the Center for Responsive Politics. “I’m writing to introduce you to a group solely devoted to leveling the playing field and protecting the Democratic majority in the Senate: Majority PAC.”

Reid asked donors for as much as $5,000, the legal limit for a federal candidate under FEC rules. But the super PAC will be free to follow up with donors on its own, asking for much larger, and unlimited, donations, campaign finance experts said.

“The outside groups are akin to the biggest booster club you can imagine for a college football team,” said Dave Levinthal, spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics, which analyzes campaign-finance data. “The club can’t give cars or gifts to the players, but they can do everything else possible to support them. . . . It’s a brand-new way to play politics.”